MOSCOW / MINSK, Belarus – China’s interest in Belarus appears to be cooling off despite his warm words to besieged strongman Alexander Lukashenko, who is trying to resist unprecedented protests and intense geopolitical pressure.

In recent years, China has emerged as a major patron of the small Eastern European nation of 9.5 million, lending hundreds of millions of dollars for infrastructure projects under the the Belt and Road initiative. China has also established the Great Stone Industrial Park, a 112 km² business center outside Minsk that has generated $ 1.2 billion in investment since 2012.

But as political unrest pushes Lukashenko to seek closer ties with China, it forces Beijing to reassess the depth of its commitment to Belarus, experts say.

“China is one of the few countries to recognize Lukashenko, but it is clear that Beijing must take into account the risks associated with the situation in Belarus, and that cooperation on a whole series of fronts could result in frozen.” he added. Arseny Sivitsky, Director of the Center for Strategic Studies and Foreign Policy in Minsk.

Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994, earning him the nickname “Europe’s last dictator” for his autocratic style. Yet following a controversial August 9 presidential election, which he claimed to have won in a landslide, hundreds of thousands of protesters gathered across the country to challenge the results. Workers at some of the country’s largest state-owned enterprises quickly joined them, announcing a nationwide strike aimed at financially crippling Lukashenko’s government.

Two months later, however, Lukashenko remains firmly in control. Mass protests are still ongoing, but most of the opposition leaders have been imprisoned or forced abroad. Belarusian security forces attempted to quell the protests by indiscriminately arresting protesters, citing torture.

“Victims described beatings, prolonged stressful positions, electric shocks and, in at least one case, rape, and said they saw other detainees suffer the same or worse abuse,” Human Rights Watch said. in a report released last month.

Nikkei Asia spoke to dozens of protesters in Minsk in mid-September, during one of the largest marches in the country’s history. They admitted that Lukashenko’s violent tactics had a chilling effect on many Belarusians.

“People don’t want blood,” said a medical student from Minsk who asked to be identified as Roman for security reasons. “They realize that there is a maniac in power and, if given a reason, he will start to shed a lot of blood.”

The wildcat strikes that broke out in several Belarusian factories initially gave protesters hope. But they spat after the government laid off many workers and closed some facilities completely.

Lukashenko’s crackdown has cost the already struggling Belarusian economy dear. In August alone, Minsk depleted $ 1.4 billion of its foreign exchange reserves amid growing fears that the Belarusian ruble could collapse. “If the [economic] the crisis strikes, people are going to resort to hunger riots, ”said a computer scientist from Brest who asked to be called Vasily. “Lukashenko’s only choice is to make the country a concentration camp where there are slaves and guards.

The president’s economic woes are compounded by increasing pressure from the West, which he has spent in recent years trying to woo. Earlier this month, the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada imposed sanctions on senior Belarusian officials involved in the post-election crackdown. More than a dozen European countries refused to recognize Lukashenko as the legitimate president of Belarus.

Lukashenko is still backed by long-standing support from Russia, which has just seen another ally – Kyrgyzstan – plunge into political chaos over the past week. Last month, the Kremlin pledged to grant Belarus a $ 1.5 billion loan. Almost all of this money, however, will go to refinancing Minsk’s existing debt to Moscow.

Russia has previously made it clear that further economic aid to Belarus depends on Lukashenko’s acceptance of greater political integration between the two countries – a prospect it has long resisted.

Feeling increasingly squeezed by the West on one side and Russia on the other, Minsk is turning to Beijing, experts say.

“China is Lukashenko’s main hope to survive in world politics and find a more decent position for Belarus there,” said Siarhei Bohdan, analyst at the Ostrogorsky Center in Minsk.

Chinese President Xi Jinping receives Lukashenko in Beijing in April 2019 © Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping was the first foreign leader to congratulate Lukashenko on his “victory” in the August elections. Shortly thereafter, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning “external forces” for interference in Belarus’ internal affairs and expressed the hope that “political stability and social tranquility will be restored under the leadership of President Lukashenko “.

These gestures did not go unnoticed in Minsk. In a meeting with the Chinese Ambassador to Belarus late last month, Lukashenko thanked Xi “for the support he has always provided, especially most recently” and invited the Chinese leader to visit. in Belarus before the end of the year.

“Tell Xi Jinping that he has reliable friends in Belarus and that Belarus will always be a friendly country for China,” Lukashenko said.

Bohdan told Nikkei that Lukashenko hopes to persuade China to increase production in Belarus, providing the country’s struggling economy with much-needed investments. At the same time, the Belarusian strongman wants to appropriate Chinese military technologies to better deter potential external threats, including Russia. China has already helped Belarus develop its own multi-launch rocket system, which the country launched in 2016.

Perhaps the problem for Lukashenko is that he needs China more than China needs him.

Despite its rhetorical support, Beijing is unlikely to do everything possible to back the beleaguered Belarusian leader, said Zhang Xin, a researcher at the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University in Shanghai.

China’s interests in Belarus “depend on the overall stability of the country rather than a single politician,” he said. “So I highly doubt that there will be a dramatic expansion of investments or loans for Belarus just to support Lukashenko as a leader.”

Zhang added that there was less funding available for “Belt and Road” projects due to the coronavirus pandemic and the ensuing global economic downturn, making it even more unlikely that China would provide a new one. major economic aid to Belarus.

Anti-Lukashenko March in Minsk on September 12: Experts say political crisis is hurting Beijing’s plans to use the country as a gateway to Europe. (Photo by David Saveliev)

Perhaps the biggest obstacle to Minsk’s desire to expand cooperation with Beijing is, ironically, Lukashenko’s growing estrangement from the West.

China has long viewed Belarus as a potential entry point for its products into the European market due to the country’s location. In 2019, more than 90% of rail freight traffic between China and Europe passed through Belarus, according to Belarusian Railways.

“This political crisis is negatively impacting China’s plans to transform Belarus into a regional hub in Eastern Europe and a gateway to the European market,” said Sivitsky of the Center for Strategic Studies and foreign politic.

“As long as Belarus does not normalize its relations with the West, this will hardly interest the big Chinese companies, for which penetrating the Western markets is the main priority today.