Roger Varian has many aces in Newbury, but is Troll one of them?
Some quality turf action today to kick off the week after a slow Monday and it comes from Newbury, Yarmouth, Salisbury and Musselburgh on the flat, while Bangor-On-Dee is your only hopping meeting.
More in Ireland, there’s a reunion in Bellewstown hosting some flat action this afternoon.
Talk about money
Money Talk continues to highlight the big wins from Betfair Sportsbook to keep you in the loop. This section will now highlight market movements between 1:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m.
2:00 p.m. Yarmouth – Oriental Art 9/4 to 6/4
18:35 Salisbury – C’Est No Mour 7/1 en 11/2
18:45 Newbury – Mickeydee from 8/1 to 4/1
The market says no!
Which market-leading horses are adrift on the Betfair Sportsbook this morning?
14:00 Yarmouth – Golden Arch 5/2 OUT 16/5
14:10 Bangor – Wishfull Dreaming 8/15 OUT 9/4
14:30 Yarmouth – Mystic Dragon 8/15 EXIT 9/4
Mark your card – Tuesday
The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra seats today!
The 17:05 Sorvio Insurance Brokers British EBF Novice Stakes at Salisbury produced two horses last year and was placed over 100 (second and third).
Coach Clive cox used the race for the start of River nymph (105) the last quarter and today has a well-bred newcomer Olympic eagle 25.024/1. Trainers Roger varian and Marcus Tregoning both intelligently bred newcomer saddles Leuven Power 6.86/1 and Kitaab 13.5.
Clive Cox is 10% with two-year-olds for the first time in Salisbury, Roger Varian is 14.3%, and Marcus Tregoning is 5.9%.
Burrows to hit rivals with a returning star
The exciting Albasheer 2.26/5 returns to the track after a 318 day absence in the 6:05 PM British Stallion Studs EBF Conditions Stakes at Salisbury.
He was last seen finishing sixth on unfavorable soft ground in the 7f Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes.
There are signage, however, as the colt returns to six stages for this return, has no future entries, and Burrows horses returning from 57 days off or more have an A / E of 0.69. They are doing worse than the market expects, so take a easy step.
Oisin Murphy avoids Newbury for six laps at Salisbury.
Spencer in Yarmouth on a Tuesday? Surely not
Remember this article from Jamie spencer to suggest midweek shopping was garbage? Well, something must have got him out of bed today because he’s got two rides Yarmouth – newcomer Cromarty 9.08/1 in the 13:30 and Oriental art 2.56/4 at 2:00 p.m. – although it looks like he doesn’t want to stay long.
Varian holds a strong hand in Newbury
Coach Roger varian has a strong team at Newbury today with a handful of potentially well disabled horses.
A few to note are Nine tales 3.412/5 5:15 p.m., Troll Peninsula 2.8815/8 5:45 p.m. and Mouchirif 3.613/5 6:45 p.m.
This section highlights horses that have won twice or more on the tracks today that might stand a chance today.
14:30 Yarmouth – Voi – Won twice (22%)
15:20 Musselburgh – Lucky Violet – Won twice (12%)
17:45 Newbury – King Ottokar – Won twice (67%)
19:35 Salisbury – Master Gray – Won twice (22%)
Weighted to go well
“Weighted to go well” highlights horses running more than 10 pounds below their last winning handicap mark and could stand a chance today.
14:50 Musselburgh – Markazi – Won 84 points out of 70
16:30 Salisbury – Sir Roderic – Won 69 points and 57 points
Most distant traveler
Most distant traveler of the day, Trainer Marc johnston, made the 225 mile journey to Newbury with Time of night 8.07/1 in the 18:45 Visit Newbury Handicap.
Race of the day
The 5:45 PM BetVictor Proud Sponsors Of Newbury Handicap sounds like a very difficult puzzle for punters to solve.
Troll Peninsula could be way ahead of the handicapper by that mark of 88, and some will no doubt be very quick to tell you that’s a good thing after impressing last time at Kempton under a penalty.
However, he did nothing more than the 90 rated filly most of the time in the next race on the map, and the form looks very suspicious with his market rival bombing and only the third, coming back from ‘a break, climbing the handicap since to 87.
His previous form at the age of two is littered with 50-60 rated horses, and although he’s allowed to improve, he looks very small.
This is by far his most difficult test to date and taking his visual performance too literally could be dangerous. At the cost, it’s easily left alone.
Power of darkness may show his best form at Newmarket, but he’s a good one after dealing with a few unexposed three-year-olds the last time with minimal fuss.
He benefited from the fast pace from the start on this occasion, but the fire is clearly still burning in the six-year-old, and he’s not the type to write off here, and he’s gained 1 pound less.
The horse shape is surely King Ottokar, who was frustrating at the back but came in with a good third here at Newbury separating two later winners.
He won’t want the ground to roll too fast (can be ripped off if it does), but his only mediocre effort came on returning in the Lincoln, which can be easily forgiven (something of a lack), and on paper, it’s his easiest task for a while.
He’s fallen to an appealing grade, is doing well on this track (two for three) and holds the best form in the race, so he has to be taken into account.
Timeform offers three of its best in Newbury, New
Timeform heads to the Newbury evening meeting and offers three of their best bets on the card.
Read Timeform’s advice here.
Already miss York? Nathan Joyes takes stock and looks at the future market upheaval
Nathan Joyes reviewed the York Ebor meeting and looks to the St Léger, the Long Distance Cup, the Prix de l’Arc and Cheveley Park.
Read Nathan’s review here.
Cleary bullish on Mishriff for the biggest price in France
David Cleary suggests that now is the time to enter the angle value 12/1 in the Arc.
Read David’s column here.
If you are a bettor, the only thing you need to do is be as individual as possible.
As a rule of thumb, if everyone loves the horse, you’re probably missing something.
I often hear that tipsters are happy that other tipsters agree with their selection and celebrate like they’ve found the holy grail.
It’s my worst nightmare. I’m looking for something that others can’t see, and if my coworkers / tipsters or social media platforms either agree or put the same horse (and I’m not talking about your 6/4 snaps) I go back immediately watch again.
It’s not disrespecting anybody, of course, I respect, well, most tipsters, but if everyone can see it then the selection is of no value, and it’s probably wrong.
You’ll see this quite often, and maybe that’s the case with the popular Troll Peninsula today (it’s open for improvement) – report it rushing and me looking like a fool – but that’s the only way to be successful in the long run.
See you tomorrow, be lucky.